The A.J. Greer Conundrum: A Free Agent's Potential Impact on the Montreal Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens are in a fascinating position as they prepare for the 2026 NHL Free Agency period. While they made waves in the playoffs, their focus now shifts to ensuring their upward trajectory continues. One name that has been thrown around in the rumour mill is A.J. Greer, a Quebec native with a scoring touch. But is he a good fit for the Habs?
Greer is not technically a free agent yet, but the Florida Panthers are expected to let him walk. This is where things get interesting. Greer, a 29-year-old left-winger, had a career-best season in 2024-25, almost doubling his point totals from the previous year. He scored 17 goals and 15 assists in 78 games, a significant step forward for a player who was never considered a reliable source of secondary and tertiary offence.
What makes Greer's situation particularly intriguing is his ability to score goals. He's a Quebec native who knows how to put the puck in the net, and his improved offence is always a positive factor. However, the key question is whether this was a flash in the pan or a sustainable situation.
Greer's production was heavily influenced by his linemates. While he played poorly, he capitalized on an opportunity to play with skilled players, improving his production rate considerably. But when analyzing his potential impact with the Canadiens, we must acknowledge that he is unlikely to play on the first line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.
Greer's production was highest when playing with centres like Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues, Carter Verhaeghe, and Eetu Luostarinen. However, his production dropped significantly when playing with other centres. This discrepancy in production at 5v5 is impossible to ignore.
The good news is that Greer's underlying numbers were quite encouraging, regardless of where he played. His shot share (CF%) and expected goal share (xGF%) were well above average, suggesting his impact went beyond just his elevated production. This means we can expect Greer to command a salary similar to the deal offered to former Hab Michael McCarron, who signed a six-year deal with the Minnesota Wild.
However, things get complicated. Greer's best, and perhaps only, opportunity to sign a rich, long-term deal is now, and there will be plenty of teams bidding for his services. The risk is that teams will become so infatuated with his improved production that they'll ignore his inflated shooting percentage and usage by the Panthers throughout the year.
In my opinion, Greer's style of play could be a saving grace. He loves to score on second-chance opportunities, wraparounds, and rebounds, the type of hard-working goals that Canadiens head coach Martin St-Louis loves to see. He's also managed to outwork his opponents on a few occasions, scoring goals directly off the faceoff in consecutive years.
When evaluating his scoring plays in the last two seasons, Greer stands out as a similar player to Brendan Gallagher in his prime, though with a much lower scoring rate and a sturdier frame. While his production may not be sustainable, his underlying numbers suggest he could be a solid addition to the Habs' bottom six.
In conclusion, A.J. Greer's potential impact on the Montreal Canadiens is a fascinating conundrum. While his production may not be sustainable, his underlying numbers and style of play could make him a valuable addition to the team. As a Quebec native with a scoring touch, he could be the perfect fit for the Habs' bottom six, providing a much-needed boost to their offence.
